Five Big Questions For Dendreon’s Analyst Day

Xconomy Seattle — 

Dendreon shocked the cancer research world back in April, proving for the first time in a major clinical trial that a drug which actively stimulates the immune system can be effective against tumors. Now the Seattle-based company has to wrestle with a whole new set of challenges to make sure it fully exploits the potential of its drug, sipuleucel-T (Provenge), which most analysts say has potential to easily top $1 billion in annual sales for patients with prostate cancer.

The company (NASDAQ: DNDN) has put off answering a few important questions about how it plans to accomplish that via manufacturing, partnering, pricing, and marketing strategy until its analyst day today in New York. I will not be attending this meeting, but I thought it would be useful, for Dendreon watchers, to provide a bit of a preview on the key issues the company will have to address at this forum. Investor expectations are running high, as the company touched a 52-week high of $30.42 a share on Tuesday.

Here are some key issues the company will be prepared to discuss:

FDA Timelines. While Dendreon clearly reached its goal of helping men live a median of four months longer than a placebo in its trial of 512 men with prostate cancer, it still needs to put together an airtight application to win FDA approval to start selling Provenge in the U.S. Dendreon has said it plans to gather all the data for its amended application, and turn the whole thing in to the FDA in the fourth quarter of this year. Since Dendreon already filed an application based on earlier data in 2007, and it really only needs to add the database from the latest big trial, this process shouldn’t drag on into 2010.

Dendreon has said it expects a six-month review of its Provenge application, so investors will set their calendars for that future date the minute Dendreon files its application. If Dendreon turns in its application in October, it could get FDA approval as soon as March.

Manufacturing. Putting together an airtight application to the FDA has to be a top priority, but manufacturing is right up there on the list. This is especially critical for Dendreon, because … Next Page »

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One response to “Five Big Questions For Dendreon’s Analyst Day”

  1. Luke, Your timing of this article is perfect. Investors who read this and want to tune in to the analyst day presentation by Dendreon now have an excellent score card to keep track of what really matters.